Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

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  • Souzana Achilleos
  • Annalisa Quattrocchi
  • John Gabel
  • Alexandros Heraclides
  • Ourania Kolokotroni
  • Constantina Constantinou
  • Maider Pagola Ugarte
  • Nicoletta Nicolaou
  • Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes
  • Catherine Marie Bennett
  • Ekaterina Bogatyreva
  • Eva Schernhammer
  • Claudia Zimmermann
  • Antonio Jose Leal Costa
  • Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato
  • Ngibo Mubeta Fernandes
  • Ana Paula Semedo-Aguiar
  • Gloria Isabel Jaramillo Ramirez
  • Oscar Dario Martin Garzon
  • Mortensen, Laust Hvas
  • Julia A. Critchley
  • Lucy P. Goldsmith
  • Gleb Denissov
  • Kristi Ruutel
  • Nolwenn Le Meur
  • Levan Kandelaki
  • Shorena Tsiklauri
  • Joan O'Donnell
  • Ajay Oza
  • Zalman Kaufman
  • Inbar Zucker
  • Giuseppe Ambrosio
  • Fabrizio Stracci
  • Terje P. Hagen
  • Ivan Erzen
  • Petra Klepac
  • Pedro Arcos Gonzalez
  • Angel Fernandez Camporro
  • Bo Burstrom
  • Nataliia Pidmurniak
  • Olesia Verstiuk
  • Qian Huang
  • Neil Kishor Mehta
  • Antonis Polemitis
  • Andreas Charalambous
  • Christiana A. Demetriou
  • C-MOR Consortium

Background This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

TidsskriftInternational Journal of Epidemiology
Udgave nummer1
Sider (fra-til)35–53
Antal sider19
StatusUdgivet - 2022

ID: 298315286