TY - JOUR

T1 - Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality

T2 - a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Quattrocchi, Annalisa

AU - Gabel, John

AU - Heraclides, Alexandros

AU - Kolokotroni, Ourania

AU - Constantinou, Constantina

AU - Ugarte, Maider Pagola

AU - Nicolaou, Nicoletta

AU - Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel

AU - Bennett, Catherine Marie

AU - Bogatyreva, Ekaterina

AU - Schernhammer, Eva

AU - Zimmermann, Claudia

AU - Leal Costa, Antonio Jose

AU - Pinto Lobato, Jackeline Christiane

AU - Fernandes, Ngibo Mubeta

AU - Semedo-Aguiar, Ana Paula

AU - Jaramillo Ramirez, Gloria Isabel

AU - Martin Garzon, Oscar Dario

AU - Mortensen, Laust Hvas

AU - Critchley, Julia A.

AU - Goldsmith, Lucy P.

AU - Denissov, Gleb

AU - Ruutel, Kristi

AU - Le Meur, Nolwenn

AU - Kandelaki, Levan

AU - Tsiklauri, Shorena

AU - O'Donnell, Joan

AU - Oza, Ajay

AU - Kaufman, Zalman

AU - Zucker, Inbar

AU - Ambrosio, Giuseppe

AU - Stracci, Fabrizio

AU - Hagen, Terje P.

AU - Erzen, Ivan

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Arcos Gonzalez, Pedro

AU - Camporro, Angel Fernandez

AU - Burstrom, Bo

AU - Pidmurniak, Nataliia

AU - Verstiuk, Olesia

AU - Huang, Qian

AU - Mehta, Neil Kishor

AU - Polemitis, Antonis

AU - Charalambous, Andreas

AU - Demetriou, Christiana A.

AU - C-MOR Consortium

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Background This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

AB - Background This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. Methods Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. Results Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. Conclusions All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

KW - COVID-19

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - pandemic

KW - mortality

KW - infection control

U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

DO - 10.1093/ije/dyab123

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34282450

VL - 51

SP - 35

EP - 53

JO - International Journal of Epidemiology

JF - International Journal of Epidemiology

SN - 0300-5771

IS - 1

ER -