Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes
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Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes. / Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob; Christensen, Karl Bang.
In: BMC Public Health, Vol. 14, 494, 2014, p. 1-11.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes
AU - Pedersen, Jacob
AU - Gerds, Thomas Alexander
AU - Bjørner, Jakob
AU - Christensen, Karl Bang
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long-term sick leave.METHODS: We obtained individual characteristics and follow-up data from the Danish Register of Sickness Absence Compensation Benefits and Social Transfer Payments (RSS) during 2004 to 2010 for 189,279 Danes who experienced a period of long-term sickness absence (4+ weeks). In a learning data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005-2007) and times of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set.RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved only moderate prediction accuracy for the five outcome states. Results obtained with discrete event simulation were comparable with logistic regression.CONCLUSIONS: Only moderate prediction accuracy could be achieved using the selected information from the Danish register RSS. Other variables need to be included in order to establish a prediction method which provides more accurate risk profiles for long-term sick-listed persons.
AB - BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long-term sick leave.METHODS: We obtained individual characteristics and follow-up data from the Danish Register of Sickness Absence Compensation Benefits and Social Transfer Payments (RSS) during 2004 to 2010 for 189,279 Danes who experienced a period of long-term sickness absence (4+ weeks). In a learning data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005-2007) and times of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set.RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved only moderate prediction accuracy for the five outcome states. Results obtained with discrete event simulation were comparable with logistic regression.CONCLUSIONS: Only moderate prediction accuracy could be achieved using the selected information from the Danish register RSS. Other variables need to be included in order to establish a prediction method which provides more accurate risk profiles for long-term sick-listed persons.
U2 - 10.1186/1471-2458-14-494
DO - 10.1186/1471-2458-14-494
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 24885866
VL - 14
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - BMC Public Health
JF - BMC Public Health
SN - 1471-2458
M1 - 494
ER -
ID: 128423647