TY - JOUR

T1 - Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

AU - Thinggaard, Mikael

AU - McGue, Matt

AU - Jeune, Bernard

AU - Osler, Merete

AU - Vaupel, James W

AU - Christensen, Kaare

N1 - © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

PY - 2016/1

Y1 - 2016/1

N2 - OBJECTIVES: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.DESIGN: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.SETTING: Denmark.PARTICIPANTS: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.RESULTS: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.CONCLUSION: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

AB - OBJECTIVES: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.DESIGN: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.SETTING: Denmark.PARTICIPANTS: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.RESULTS: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.CONCLUSION: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

KW - Activities of Daily Living

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Cognition

KW - Denmark

KW - Female

KW - Forecasting

KW - Geriatric Assessment

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Prognosis

KW - Retrospective Studies

KW - Survival Analysis

KW - Survival Rate

KW - Journal Article

KW - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

U2 - 10.1111/jgs.13838

DO - 10.1111/jgs.13838

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 26782855

VL - 64

SP - 81

EP - 88

JO - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society

JF - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society

SN - 0002-8614

IS - 1

ER -