Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19: A statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, Denmark, spring 2020
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Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19 : A statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, Denmark, spring 2020. / Nielsen, Jens; Rod, Naja Hulvej; Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Lange, Theis.
I: Eurosurveillance, Bind 26, Nr. 8, 2021.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19
T2 - A statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, Denmark, spring 2020
AU - Nielsen, Jens
AU - Rod, Naja Hulvej
AU - Vestergaard, Lasse S.
AU - Lange, Theis
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Background: Timely monitoring of COVID-19 impact on mortality is critical for rapid risk assessment and public health action. Aim: Building upon well-established models to estimate influenza-related mortality, we propose a new statistical Attributable Mortality Model (AttMOMO), which estimates mortality attributable to one or more pathogens simultaneously (e.g. SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses), while adjusting for seasonality and excess temperatures. Methods: Data from Nationwide Danish registers from 2014-week(W)W27 to 2020-W22 were used to exemplify utilities of the model, and to estimate COVID-19 and influenza attributable mortality from 2019-W40 to 2020-W20. Results: SARS-CoV-2 was registered in Denmark from 2020-W09. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Denmark increased steeply, and peaked in 2020-W14. As preventive measures and national lockdown were implemented from 2020-W12, the attributable mortality started declining within a few weeks. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 from 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 was estimated to 16.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.0 to 20.4) per 100, 000 person-years. The 2019/20 influenza season was mild with few deaths attributable to influenza, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.4) per 100, 000 person-years. Conclusion: AttMOMO estimates mortality attributable to several pathogens simultaneously, providing a fuller picture of mortality by COVID-19 during the pandemic in the context of other seasonal diseases and mortality patterns. Using Danish data, we show that the model accurately estimates mortality attributable to COVID-19 and influenza, respectively. We propose using standardised indicators for pathogen circulation in the population, to make estimates comparable between countries and applicable for timely monitoring.
AB - Background: Timely monitoring of COVID-19 impact on mortality is critical for rapid risk assessment and public health action. Aim: Building upon well-established models to estimate influenza-related mortality, we propose a new statistical Attributable Mortality Model (AttMOMO), which estimates mortality attributable to one or more pathogens simultaneously (e.g. SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses), while adjusting for seasonality and excess temperatures. Methods: Data from Nationwide Danish registers from 2014-week(W)W27 to 2020-W22 were used to exemplify utilities of the model, and to estimate COVID-19 and influenza attributable mortality from 2019-W40 to 2020-W20. Results: SARS-CoV-2 was registered in Denmark from 2020-W09. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Denmark increased steeply, and peaked in 2020-W14. As preventive measures and national lockdown were implemented from 2020-W12, the attributable mortality started declining within a few weeks. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 from 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 was estimated to 16.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.0 to 20.4) per 100, 000 person-years. The 2019/20 influenza season was mild with few deaths attributable to influenza, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.4) per 100, 000 person-years. Conclusion: AttMOMO estimates mortality attributable to several pathogens simultaneously, providing a fuller picture of mortality by COVID-19 during the pandemic in the context of other seasonal diseases and mortality patterns. Using Danish data, we show that the model accurately estimates mortality attributable to COVID-19 and influenza, respectively. We propose using standardised indicators for pathogen circulation in the population, to make estimates comparable between countries and applicable for timely monitoring.
U2 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.8.2001646
DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.8.2001646
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33632375
AN - SCOPUS:85102095801
VL - 26
JO - Eurosurveillance
JF - Eurosurveillance
SN - 1025-496X
IS - 8
ER -
ID: 258890378