OBJECTIVE: To project the future costs of primary care providers in Denmark, taking into account high costs in the last year of life.

DESIGN: Observational study and modelling.

SETTING: Primary health care providers (doctors, dentists, physiotherapists, etc.), but not nursing homes and home help services.

METHODS: The Danish population for the years 1995-2020 was projected on the basis of the current population using the cohort-component method. Average costs of use of various types of primary care providers were estimated from a 19.2% random sample of the 1995 population. Future costs were then projected using the population projection and age- and sex-specific average costs for survivors and non-survivors.

RESULTS: The population was projected to increase by 8.2%, while the estimated increase was 36.1% for people aged over 50 years. Future costs of primary care providers were projected to increase by 8.2%, i.e. proportionally to the population increase.

CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study indicate that demographic changes will Influence future costs of primary care providers through an increasing population size, but not because of ageing. This conclusion is independent of whether high costs in the last year of life are accounted for or not.