TY - JOUR

T1 - Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution

AU - Gollin, Douglas

AU - Hansen, Casper Worm

AU - Wingender, Asger Mose

PY - 2021/8

Y1 - 2021/8

N2 - We estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). We find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 and 2010, with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs. Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and added 223 million people to the developing-world population. The cumulative GDP loss over 45 years would have been US$83 trillion, corresponding to approximately one year of current global GDP.

AB - We estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). We find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 and 2010, with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs. Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and added 223 million people to the developing-world population. The cumulative GDP loss over 45 years would have been US$83 trillion, corresponding to approximately one year of current global GDP.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Green revolution

KW - productivity shock

KW - macroeconomic development

U2 - 10.1086/714444

DO - 10.1086/714444

M3 - Journal article

VL - 129

SP - 2344

EP - 2384

JO - Journal of Political Economy

JF - Journal of Political Economy

SN - 0022-3808

IS - 8

ER -